Friday, November 26, 2010


rough draft Oct/27/10
edit: Dec/21/10 - corrected link to previous post criticizing Aiden Foster-Carter's paper...

After receiving surgery a couple weeks ago, I've been in a hospital with another surgery being scheduled for one in another couple weeks. As my stay  has continued to grow longer, the stay has proved to be quite positive in the sense of recovering from surgery. At the same time though, I've noticed the hospital also functions as a shield in that it has kept me from reading news articles (no Internet) or watching televised news articles. (no television in rooms). However, I've been approached a couple times about the possibility of war breaking due to the recent North Korean attack on a South Korean controlled island.This has out in Korea and it has drawn me to write this post in the nurses computers as I try to compute what the possibility of war will be.

 To get an understanding of why North Korea has done this, it's important not to forget that North Korea has named Kim Jong Il's youngest son in a position of authority. With Kim Jong Il still, alive, the possibility of war is zero and the most recent action to attack South Koreans functions to display how weak the North Korean-Chinese alliance is.

In this context, North Korea attacked South Korean forces largely to illustrate that even with Kim Jong Il's terrible health, North Korea is still run by a powerful, centralized government. This is a highly important issue when looking for the primary goals for North Korea deciding to attack South Koreans.

I earlier wrote against the principle that China won a prize by having North Korean support and it seems China is losing more than it gains by "allying" with North Korea.

The Economist has a recent article that binds the recent DPRK attack within this context of China actually losing out by North Koean agression:

China cannot be blind to the Kims’ bungling and bellicosity, nor welcome their nuclear ambitions. But it has had two worse fears. One is of a rekindled war on the peninsula, which would damage China. The other is of North Korean collapse, with millions of desperate refugees pouring into China and South Korea or even American troops on China’s border. It is as a bulwark against this “instability” that China cossets the Kims. It refused to condemn them even for the sinking of the Cheonan, and this week issued blandly even-handed calls for restraint. It apparently believes that if their only ally abandons them, the Kims might do something really rash.
To assess the value of this action by North Korea, all we need to do is consider that the purpose of these attacks are to suggest that even when Kim Jong Il passes away, the government is strong and led by his brother-in-law/sister, and his 27 year old son. News coverage that asks the average joe what the chances of war will be after the North Korean attack is proves to a positive consequence for North Korea attacking South Korea.Of course, if the average joe answers that chances of war are still almost zero, then the miliary attack happened to be a failure for all countries in the region.

p.s. I've been very sick for the past couple months and I've been unable to post on this webblog until, well, I was driven to post on this topic. But, me being sick, does not get me to start concluding that there will be war in Northeast Asia. It does hint that future elections will be won by SKorean politicians siting to the right of center - GNP/Han Nara Dang)

After North Korean artillery showered this island in the Yellow Sea Tuesday, locals say they're fearful of North Korea's latest threats of a peninsula 'on the brink of war.'

Police officers patrol near houses destroyed by a North Korean attack on the Yeonpyeong Island, South Korea, Friday. Yeonpyeong is evacuating its 1,700 residents after North Korea said they were on the 'brink of war.'
(rough draft )

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